Itâ€™s only March, and weâ€™ve already officially headed into the blockbuster season. Last week, audiences were blown away by Logan, the latest Wolverine-centric spinoff in the X-Men universe. That film hit the box office with a bang, taking in over $85 million in its opening weekend, putting it in direct competition with this coming weekendâ€™s opener, Kong: Skull Island.
Kong: Skull Island is the second film set in the MonsterVerse, which is Warner Brosâ€™ and Legendaryâ€™s shared universe that consists of movie monsters King Kong and Godzilla. The film has a hefty budget of $185 million, meaning itâ€™ll likely have to make north of $400 million at the box office in order to considered a big success. So whatâ€™s the projection for it, especially when taking Logan into consideration?
According to Deadline, Kong is looking to take in $40-$50 million domestically in its opening weekend. However, that seems to be a conservative projection. Considering that last yearâ€™s Legend of Tarzan took in $46 million with a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 36 percent, we think itâ€™s plausible that Kong: Skull Island can break $50 million with its 81 percent.
So does this push it clear of Logan? Not quite. Itâ€™ll actually be quite the race. Logan is getting quite the good word of mouth, and given its momentum, its weekend-to-weekend drop could be relatively small. For example, if Logan drops 45 percent (which is an admirable drop), itâ€™ll land it at around $48 million, making this coming weekend anyoneâ€™s game.
RELATED: OUR REVIEW OF KONG: SKULL ISLAND
Of course, where the two films differ greatly is in style and tone. Logan is a hard, dramatic piece, whereas Kong: Skull Island is the very definition of a popcorn film. Yes, the buzz surrounding Logan may be great, but at the end of the day, audiences may be more in the mood for a romp through the jungle than a depressing superhero western.
But my personal question is whether or not Kong can be considered a success with a $50 million opener. Granted, itâ€™s likely to make up for a lot of that at the foreign box office, but if it starts out that low, it seems questionable that itâ€™ll make back enough to justify any further sequels. For comparison, Godzilla made over $90 million in its opening weekend domestically. It was made on a budget of $160 million. It made $529 million worldwideâ€¦and it supposedly only made just north of $50 million in profits. Not super encouraging for Kong, if itâ€™s tracking for $50 million on its more than $180 million budget. Then again, once you smash both Kong and Godzilla together on screen, all bets will be off as to how well theyâ€™ll do.
Guess weâ€™ll just have to wait and see.
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