On March 3, we published the initial box office outlook for BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE. That report included early predictions based on pre-sales. Now Deadline has released updated projections, and they are very encouraging for Warner Bros.
According to current pre-sales, BATMAN V SUPERMAN is outpacing DEADPOOL, THE AVENGERS, and is actually about on-par with THE DARK KNIGHT RISES. That last film ended up with a $160 million opening weekend. BATMAN V SUPERMAN, though, is still projected to land somewhere in the $140 million range, with a global cume between $300 and $340 million.
On the demographic end, the audience is skewing heavily towards males (78%) between the ages of 18 and 49. 70% of those buyers will be seeing the film in its opening weekend.
So the pre-sales are looking great, but the overall projections haven't shifted much. There's still reason to believe that these estimates are on the conservative end.
Pre-sale tickets for BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE went on sale Monday morning. The film has every reason to be one of the biggest of all time, based on its title alone. It's one of those dream properties that would do well even if it was just one long clip of Batman and Superman sitting down, in costume, and sipping tea at a cabin beside a lake. And now we know exactly how well it's expected to do.
Deadline has had a look at the official tracking reports, released by Warner Bros, and any concerns that the film would somehow tank should be put to rest.
Let's have a look at the numbers, shall we?
Domestic Opening Weekend
BATMAN V SUPERMAN, based on the strength of its presales, is looking to bring in somewhere between $120-$140 million. This would mean it has a similar opening weekend to Fox's rated-R DEADPOOL, which opened to $132 million domestically last month. It would also mean that it's the second highest grosser ever in the month of March, putting it behind 2012's THE HUNGER GAMES, which opened to $152 million.
It'll be aided in reaching these numbers thanks to the Easter holiday weekend.
Foreign Opening Weekend
The foreign market is where things get even rosier. As with many of Hollywood's biggest blockbusters these days, international audiences tend to outnumber domestic ones. When foreign projections are factored in, the worldwide cume for BATMAN V SUPERMAN, which will be opening everywhere (including China), is somewhere between $300 and $340 million. That would put it in fifth place, in terms of comic book movies, after AVENGERS ($392.5M), AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON ($392.5M), SPIDER-MAN 3 ($381.7M) and IRON MAN 3 ($372.5M).
One inside source, who's a box office analyst for a rival studio, told Deadline that the WB's domestic projection might be a bit on the conservative side. They feel that way because the advance sales have so far surpassed the last solo Batman flick, THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, and that film's opening haul was $160 million- a number that many believe was marred by the mass shooting in Aurora, Colorado. Barring another tragedy like that taking place during one of its screenings and scaring people away from movie theaters, Deadline's source thinks the film could open to something more like $180 million.
The beauty of it all is that we don't have much more of a wait ahead of us to find out. BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE opens in only 22 days, on March 25.
And just to briefly circle back to a discussion I had with readers earlier this week: See? Warner Bros is not going to miss those 15 bucks I won't be spending on this picture. So all is right with the world! Somehow, life will go on, but thanks for caring so much about whether or not I'm interested in this film.
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