– by Joseph Jammer Medina

It gets increasingly difficult to peg where a film’s performance will fall in an opening weekend. A few years ago, things seemed a whole lot simpler, but in a world where there’s a $100 million-plus opening film hitting every other week, it gets harder to gauge the tolerance an audience has for similar films. 2011 saw the release of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, and that film took in around $4.7 million in its opening Thursday. The movie went on to make around $90 million in its opening weekend, and over $1 billion worldwide in its theatrical run, securing its place in a rare category of ultra-successful films.

This past Thursday, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, the fifth film in the franchise, took in $5.5 million in Thursday ticket sales. When compared to the On Stranger Tides it seems to hint at a potential $100 million opening. And why not? This is the first Pirates flick in a solid six years, so perhaps the audience’s appetite is such that they want another Pirates movie. However, we can’t help but look at Alien: Covenant, which just hit theaters last weekend.

RELATED – Alien: Covenant Set To Take In North Of $40 Million In Its Opening Weekend

Based on Alien: Covenant’s Thursday numbers, it was on track to take in north of $40 million. However, when all said and done, it only made $36 million — a far cry from what the studio was hoping for. That’s not to say that Pirates can’t pull of a $90 million-plus opening, but this does instill an extra dose of doubt. And that doesn’t compare to the doubt that we have surrounding its worldwide total box office cume.

While general knowledge would have us assume that $1 billion is in this flicks’ future, the fact is that next week, it will be taking on the likes of Wonder Woman, and beyond that, it will be facing off against The Mummy. This makes the opening weekends of each respective film all the more important, and seems to imply that this film will likely not even touch $1 billion worldwide. If we had to guess, we’d call it at around $800 million worldwide, tops. But in today’s increasingly competitive blockbuster landscape, it’s just become too tough to call. Add in the fact that last year’s X-Men: Apocalypse took in $8.2 million in its opening weekend, only to go on to make around $65 million in its opening weekend, and you have a surefire recipe for doubt.

What do you think? What do these Thursday numbers hint at for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales? Let us know your thoughts down below!

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SOURCE: Box Office Mojo

Joseph Jammer Medina is an author, podcaster, and editor-in-chief of LRM. A graduate of Chapman University's Dodge College of Film and Television, Jammer's always had a craving for stories. From movies, television, and web content to books, anime, and manga, he's always been something of a story junkie.