Star Wars: The Last Jedi may have suffered a 69 percent drop in its second weekend, but it looks like it’s still on track to do pretty well for itself — at least if you’re to believe box office projections. We’ll get into that in a bit. But let’s start out with what Star Wars: The Last Jedi has accomplished.
As mentioned above, the film suffered a 69 percent drop over the weekend. Even for someone who’s wishing the best for this one, that’s a substantial drop. You can chock it up to competition at the box office this past weekend (which was pretty stiff, with Jumanji, The Greatest Showman, and Pitch Perfect 3), or you can chock it up to the backlash against the film. However, even after that, the film is about to blow past the $800 million milestone today.
As of this writing, it has about $793 million in worldwide sales, with $397 million made up of domestic numbers, and $396 million made up of foreign numbers. All in all, the movie has a shockingly equal division between domestic and foreign tickets, which is abnormal for big blockbusters (they usually skew heavily on their foreign ticket sales — The Force Awakens had 54.7 percent of its sales from the international box office).
But what does this mean for the film going forward?
THR predicts that despite the film lagging substantially behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens (which was already a given, given its $2.1 billion haul), and venturing dangerously close to Rogue One territory (which took in just south of $1.1 billion), that the film is set to hit $1.6 billion globally, which would comfortably make it a success.
When all said and done, it’s predicted to take in $750 million to $800 million in sales in North America alone. By why the lag in its second weekend? When compared to The Force Awakens’ 40 percent drop, 69 percent seems pretty darn foreboding. They partially blame it on the fact that Christmas Eve fell on a Thursday back in 2015, which could contribute to a much stronger box office weekend.
comScore analyst Paul Dergaragedian had the following to say about that:
“The Force Awakens was an outlier, the likes of which we may never see again, and to compare any movie, even a Star Wars film, to that performance is unfair given the buildup to that film’s monumental release. At a gross of nearly $750 million worldwide and a near even split between the North American and international gross after a little over a week in theaters, The Last Jedi is by any measure a great success, and the passionate debate over pros and cons of the film itself serve only to show the continued passion that fans have for this historic film series.”
The film has one final major market to launch in overseas, and that’s China. Interestingly enough, the film is expected to exceed the $125 million there that The Force Awakens did.
Personally (not that it matters), given the momentum, I think it’s a tall order for the film to hit $1.6 billion. When all said and done, I think $1.3 to $1.4 billion is more what we can expect. It’s a bit lower than we’re sure the studio had hoped, but it still one hell of a success by any measurement. But, of course, we’ll have to wait and see if it making those numbers is even possible.
What do you think of the performance so far, and do you think it’ll hit $1.6 billion? Let us know your thoughts down below!