Early forecasts are in, folks! It’s roughly a month until we get our bi-yearly Star Wars Skywalker Saga fix, and all eyes are on Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Not only will this end the sequel trilogy and nine-film saga, but it’s also the first episodic film to hit after the incredibly divisive Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which saw fandom split in two, brother against brother, fan against fan. So Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker would be a test to see whether or not the so-called boycott was truly operational.

Today, we got an update on how the new film is tracking in its December 20 opening weekend, and according to THR, it’s actually tracking a bit lower than The Last Jedi did. The outlet states the film is on course to hit $175 million to $200 million domestically. This is lower than TLJ’s $200 million-plus opening that was predicted and just a tad lower than The Force Awakens’ $185 million to $210 million opening.

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Obviously, both of those films exceeded expectations, with The Force Awakens taking in $248 million in its opening weekend and The Last Jedi taking in $220 million, so I fully expect The Rise of Skywalker to exceed $200 million in its opening weekend. But will it be enough to outperform its predecessor in the long run? Of course, that all depends on how well the film is perceived by both fans and critics and how many repeat viewers it gets, but it’s an interesting pattern.

Disney and Lucasfilm are reportedly managing expectations due to the volatile state of the box office and its competition in the form of Jumanji: The Next Level, a film hitting the week before that is now part of a healthy franchise all its own, and is tracking admirably as well.

So, what do you think? Of course, there’s still a month until the flick hits, so there’s plenty of time for things to change, but do you see this evidence of fan backlash, or just early tracking numbers that don’t really indicate much of a difference from previous ones? Let us know your thoughts down below!

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SOURCE: THR (1), (2), Deadline