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The Rise Of Skywalker: Weekend Box Office Estimates Are In…

Oh boy… Here. We. Go. The weekend estimated take for the final film in the Skywalker Saga, The Rise of Skywalker, is $175.5 million domestically and $374 million worldwide. $175 million is nothing to scoff at in most cases, but the Star Wars franchise is not like most cases. This is below the $190-$200 million that was expected and way below the $247 and $220 from The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi respectively. This brings to question, is the alleged boycott working?

RELATED: Star Wars: Will The Rise Of Skywalker Be A Box Office Flop Or Juggernaut?

After the divisive The Last Jedi hit in 2017, the split fandom started talking about boycotts. This group claimed the disappointing box office take for Solo ($392 million worldwide) was because of them, and claimed that their boycott would see to it that The Rise of Skywalker was a failure too. Now, there are plenty of times people on the internet say things that spread like wildfire even though the idea may not be shared by the majority of people, but this boycott was spoken of many times in the comments section of this website too. This boycott could be working… or many people were on the edge and wanted to see fan reactions before seeing this film.

I did a bunch of math based on the last two trilogies and estimated a $210 million opening, $700m total domestic take, and $1.5 billion worldwide based on the percentage rises and drops between second and third films in the past trilogies. There was always a rise in box office take for the third films because it was the end of a trilogy… the finale of something. Now, this is looking like the finale may make the least money in its trilogy. According to math done by Box Office Mojo they expect this film to have a $551 million domestic haul. That’s nearly half of The Force Awakens’ $936 million domestic take but only $70 million-ish shy of The Last Jedi’s $620 million. Is that really a sign of a massive boycott? Or is it a sign of distrust for the franchise? A willingness to wait for home release simply because of all of the super-emotional talk surrounding the film. Is Star Wars actually suffering the fatigue some outlets are always bringing up about Marvel films?

I am not picking a side on this. I said before that I thought anything under $150 million opening weekend would be a sign of a successful boycott. That was an arbitrary number that sounded good to me and had no real science behind it. Maybe $110 million (50% less than TLJ) would be a better indicative number since the fandom is supposedly split in half. Is this $50 million drop a sign that only TLJ lovers stayed home due to the critics basically admitting TRoS undoes the last film? Would that mean the boycott was a failure and the “real” fans actually showed up? Which side of the TLJ rift is larger, the lovers or haters? We may never know for sure.

What do you think about the opening take for The Rise of Skywalker? Is this the result of the alleged boycott, or is it the opposite and the result of TLJ fans staying home? Let us know in the comments below.

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Sources: Box Office Mojo, Variety

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